Technology & Innovation

应用ARPA-I:运输基础设施的验证模型

06.06.23 | 22分钟阅读 | 文字安迪·戈登Aleksandra Srdanovic克里斯蒂娜·维拉斯克斯(Cristina Velasquez)

执行摘要

In November 2021, Congress passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which included $550 billion in new funding for dozens of new programs across the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Alongside historic investments in America’s roads and bridges, the bill created the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Infrastructure (ARPA-I). Building on successful models like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Advanced Research Program-Energy (ARPA-E), ARPA-I’s mission is to bring the nation’s most innovative technology solutions to bear on our most significant transportation infrastructure challenges.

ARPA-I must navigate America’s uniquely complex infrastructure landscape, characterized by limited federal research and development funding compared to other sectors, public sector ownership and stewardship, and highly fragmented and often overlapping ownership structures that include cities, counties, states, federal agencies, the private sector, and quasi-public agencies. Moreover, the new agency needs to integrate the strong culture, structures, and rigorous ideation process that ARPAs across government have honed since the 1950s. This report is a primer on how ARPA-I, and its stakeholders, can leverage this unique opportunity to drive real, sustainable, and lasting change in America’s transportation infrastructure.

如何使用此报告

该报告强调了Arpa-i的机会;使那些不熟悉运输基础设施部门的人面临所面临的独特挑战;提供了对ARPA模型及其早期计划设计的基本理解;并使专家和利益相关者有能力参与计划构想。但是,根据读者对ARPA-I的先验知识并有意参与,可以将各个部分用作独立工具。

运输基础设施创新的机会

In November 2021, Congress passed theInfrastructure Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA)授权美国运输部(USDOT)创建高级研究项目机构基础设施(ARPA-I),以及其他新计划。ARPA-I的使命是通过开发创新的科学和技术解决方案来推动美国运输基础设施:

Arpa-i将通过支持研究项目来实现这一目标:

ARPA-I is the newest addition to a long line of successful ARPAs that continue to deliver breakthrough innovations across the defense, intelligence, energy, and health sectors. The U.S. Department of Defense established the pioneering国防高级研究项目局(DARPA)1958年,为了响应苏联发射的卫星卫星,以开发和展示高风险,高回报的技术和能力,以确保美国军事技术优势和面对国家安全挑战。多年来,DARPA计划负责取得重大的技术进步,具有防御和国家安全以外的影响,例如互联网的早期阶段,全球定位系统(GPS)的创建以及对与之打击至关重要的mRNA疫苗的开发2019冠状病毒病。

鉴于通过DARPA计划获得的许多成功进步,政府复制了其他关键部门的ARPA模型,从而在国家情报部长办公室内进行了情报高级研究项目活动(IARPA),高级研究项目局 -能源部内的能源,以及最近的卫生与公共服务部内的高级研究项目机构 - 健康(ARPA-H)。

现在,有机会带来同样的不受束缚的创新精神,以解决我们这个时代最紧迫的运输基础设施挑战。长期以来,美国面临着各种与运输基础设施相关的挑战,部分原因是联邦研发水平较低(R&D)开支in this area; the fragmentation of roles across federal, state, and local government; risk-averse procurement practices; and sluggish commercial markets. These challenges include:

2023财政年度综合拨款法案授予了Arpa-i初始拨款in early 2023. Yet even before that, the Biden-Harris Administration saw the potential for ARPA-I-driven innovations to help meet its goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, as articulated in its零游戏改变者计划。特别是,政府确定了智能移动性,清洁有效的运输系统,下一代基础设施构建,高级电力基础设施和清洁燃料基础设施为“净零游戏改变者”,ARPA-I可以在帮助发展方面发挥作用。

为了使ARPA-I计划发挥其全部潜力,代理商的利益相关者和合作伙伴不仅需要了解如何有效地应用ARPA模型,而且还需要在计划设计中考虑如何在运输基础设施中的独特情况和挑战。

运输基础设施环境的独特挑战

使用ARPA-I推进运输基础设施的突破,需要意识到优先级的最持久挑战以及该行业内部独特的环境集合,如果忽略,则可能会阻碍进步。以下是ARPA-I要考虑的关键挑战和考虑因素的摘要,然后对每个挑战进行了更深入的分析。

运输基础设施中的较低联邦研发支出

Federal R&D expenditures in transportation infrastructure lag behind those in other sectors. This gap is particularly acute because, unlike for some other sectors, federal transportation R&D expenditures often fund studies and systems used to make regulatory decisions rather than technological innovation. The table below compares actual federal R&D spending and sector expenditures for 2019 across defense, healthcare, energy, and transportation as a percentage of each sector’s GDP. The federal government spends orders of magnitude less on transportation than other sectors: energy R&D spending as a percentage of sector GDP is nearly 15 times higher than transportation, while health is 13 times higher and defense is nearly 38 times higher.

代理 ^1 实际联邦研发支出,2019年 Value added by industry and % of U.S. GDP, 2019 2019 federal R&D spending as % of sector GDP
防御 $54.69 billion 7320亿美元(3.4%) 7.5%
卫生与公共服务 385.1亿美元 $1,452 billion (6.8%) ^2 2.7%
Energy $18.27 billion 60070亿美元(2.8%) ^3 3.0%
运输 $1.10 billion $610 billion (2.9%) ^4 0.2%
扩张脚注

1.比较2019年联邦研发支出和部门支出与2020年和2021年的比较。

2.不包括与社会援助有关的GDP增值

3.包括与石油和天然气提取,公用事业以及石油和煤炭产品有关的GDP增值

4.不包括与仓库有关的GDP值添加

公共部门的主导地位限制了创新投资

Since 1990, total investment in U.S. R&D has increased byroughly 9 times。When looking at the source of R&D investment over the same period, the private and public sectors invested approximately the same amount of R&D funding in 1982, but today the rate of R&D investment is nearly大4倍对于私营企业而不是政府。

尽管大部分来自私营部门的研发问题存在问题,例如由于更有利可图的市场激励措施而忽略了长期公共物品的创新,但获得了相当大的私人研发资金的行业仍然看到了重大的创新突破。例如,医疗行业在2020年获得了1618亿美元的私人研发资金,而联邦资金仅为615亿美元。超过75%的私营企业研发发生在生物制药部门中,公司有利润激励措施处于医学进步的最前沿。

The transportation sector has one robust domain for private R&D investment: vehicle and aircraft equipment manufacturing. In 2018, total private R&D was526亿美元。私营部门运输研发专注于个人客户和最终用户,创造更好的车辆,产品和效率。该私营部门研发的绝大多数没有用于基础设施,因为好处在很大程度上是公共的,而不是私人的。换句话说,美国将研发数量的投资量超过50倍,而不是这些车辆运行的基础设施系统。

政府层面的市场破裂

尽管在公共主导的运输基础设施系统中机会,市场破碎是快速进步的持续障碍。每个级别的政府都有不同的行为者,具有不同的目标和责任。例如,在联邦一级,USDOT为跨航空,高速公路,铁路,运输,港口和海上模式提供了国家级别的指导,政策和资金。同时,各州设定了目标,制定运输计划和项目,并管理州际公路系统等运输网络。大都会规划组织在区域层面承担了一些计划职能,地方政府通常维护其大部分基础设施。还有一些当地的机构运营在州,地区或地方一级组织机场,港口或收费公路等设施。可以使用合作伙伴关系削减这种系统挂毯的程序对于大规模驾驶影响至关重要。

Local agencies have limited access and capabilities to develop cross-sector technologies. They have access to limited pools of USDOT funding to pilot technologies and thus generally rely on commercially available technologies to increase the likelihood of pilot success. One shortcoming of this current process is that both USDOT and infrastructure owner-operators (IOOs) play a more passive role in developing innovative technologies, instead depending on merely deploying market-ready technologies.

多种模式,客户和司法管辖区在有效分配研发资源方面造成了困难

运输基础设施部门是一个多模式的环境many modes, including aviation, maritime, pipelines, railroads, roadways (which includes biking and walking), and transit. Each mode includes various customers and stakeholders to be considered. In addition, in the fragmented market landscape federal, state, and local departments of transportation have different—and sometimes competing—priorities and mandates. This dynamic creates difficulties in allocating R&D resources and considering access to innovation across these different modes.

Customer identification is not “one size fits all” across existing ARPAs. For example, DARPA has a laser focus on delivering efficient innovations for one customer: the Department of Defense. For ARPA-E, it is less clear; their customers range from utility companies to homeowners looking to benefit from lower energy costs. ARPA-I would occupy a space in between these two cases, understanding that its end users are IOOs—entities responsible for deploying infrastructure in many cases at the local or regional level.

但是,即使对客户的这种更直接的了解,关注多种模式的系统的缺点是,运输基础设施非常广泛,从自我修复混凝土到交点安全到部署电动移动性等,都占据了一切。更复杂的事情是所有模式的技术和期望的快速发展,以及全新的运输方式的推出。这些发展引起了人们对新技术和能力在现有模态框架中的位置,运输基础设施市场中哪些演员的发展以及最终的“客户”或创新最终用户是谁的疑问。

鉴于运输基础设施投资不仅改变了一个地区的人民和商品的发展,而且从根本上影响了其发展,对运输模式及其潜在客户的快速技术演变具有矩阵的了解对于未来的投资和建立基础设施至关重要。ARPA-I有望与USDOT的模式和各种办公室合作塑造学习,以确保满足整个运输系统需求以及所有模式中用户需求的基础技术和方法的开发和完善。

ARPA成功的核心原则

使用ARPA模型成功comes from demonstrating new innovative capabilities, building a community of people (an “ecosystem”) to carry the progress forward, and having the support of key decision-makers. Yet the ARPA model can only be successful if its program directors (PDs), fellows, stakeholders, and other partners understand the unique structure and inherent flexibility required when working to create a culture conducive to spurring breakthrough innovations. From a structural and cultural standpoint, the ARPA model is unlike any other agency model within the federal government, including all existing R&D agencies. Partners and other stakeholders should embrace the unique characteristics of an ARPA.

Cultural Components

ARPA应该冒险。

ARPA投资组合可能是与联邦政府的风险投资组合最接近的。他们有一项大幅波动的任务,因此不应仅限于看起来像是安全赌注的项目。ARPA在整个生存过程中都会从事许多项目,因此他们应该在将失败作为过程的自然部分的同时,将快速胜利与长期赌注保持平衡。

ARPA应在必要时不断评估和枢纽。

An ARPA needs to be ruthless in its decision-making process because it has the ability to maneuver and shift without the restriction of initial plans or roadmaps. For example, projects around more nascent technology may require more patience, but if assessments indicate they are not achieving intended outcomes or milestones, PDs should not be afraid to terminate those projects and focus on other new ideas.

Arpas应该保持在政治上的境地。

ARPA可以考虑为创新提供资金的新的和非传统的方式,因此不应陷入其更广泛的代理中的趋势。随着船上的不同管理部门,新办公室建立,党派优先级可能会发生变化,但是ARPA应限制外部对其日常运营的影响。

ARPA团队成员应接受企业家的心态。

PDs、合作伙伴和其他团队成员电磁制动技术需要ace the creative freedom required for success and operate much like entrepreneurs for their programs. Valued traits include a propensity toward action, flexibility, visionary leadership, self-motivation, and tenacity.

ARPA团队成员必须迅速而灵活。

试图在未来两年,五年,10年或以后计划该机构的道路是徒劳的,可能会损害进步。ARPA需要每天和年度的最终灵活性。与其他联邦举措相比,ARPA的设计要少得多,迫使不必要的计划和官僚机构在代理机构上的进步将放缓。

合作必须编织成代理机构的结构。

随着ARPA工作的迅速转移和企业家的性质,联邦工作人员,承包商和其他代理合作伙伴需要互相依靠彼此来支持和援助,以抓住机遇,并继续随着计划的成熟和转变而继续发展。

结果比遵循过程更重要。

ARPA PDs must be free to explore potential program and project ideas without any predetermination. The agency should support them in pursuing big and unconventional ideas unrestricted by a particular process. While there is a process to turn their most unconventional and groundbreaking ideas into funded and functional projects, transformational ideas are more important than the process itself during idea generation.

ARPA team members welcome feedback.

Things move quickly in an ARPA, and decisions must match that pace, so individuals such as fellows and PDs must work together to offer as much feedback as possible. Constructive pushback helps avoid blind alleys and thus makes programs stronger.

Structural Components

ARPA导演设定了愿景。

导演的愿景有助于吸引合适的人才和适当水平的野心和重点领域,同时获得关键决策者和名人的支持。该愿景将决定ARPA在该愿景中的执行能力的PD的类型和素质。

PDs can make or break an ARPA and set the technical direction.

由于该机构的权力在于其人民,因此ARPA通常是平坦的组织。ARPA应寻求聘请最优秀,最有远见的思想家和建筑商作为PD,使他们能够确定和设计良好的程序,并在有限的层次中执行。在此过程中,PDS应在计划设计的早期阶段与决策者互动,以了解实施者的需求和现实。

签约有助于实现目标。

ARPA模型允许PDS与大学,公司,非营利组织,组织和其他政府领域联系起来,以合同必要的研发。这使该计划可以与个人建立关系,而无需雇用或提供设施或研究实验室。

互动改善了结果。

从过去的ARPA版本中尝试远程和混合环境,很明显,在ARPA的各种角色和程序中进行有机碰撞对于实现更好的结果很重要。例如,PDS和技术顾问之间正在进行的面对面互动对创意,技术项目和计划管理至关重要。

职员transitions must be well facilitated to retain institutional knowledge.

ARPA最独特的结构特征之一是其经常营业额。PD和研究员是限制的,随着市场和行业的发展,ARPA旨在每隔几年移交每几年的关键职位,因此,进行周到的过渡过程至关重要,包括考虑系统工程和技术援助的作用(SETA)承包商填补知识空白,培养活跃的校友网络以及交错的招聘周期,以使大量的PD和研究员并非一次都在退出他们的服务。

缩放应内置在结构中。

它不能被认为,如果一个项目是successful, the private sector will pick that technology up and help it scale. Instead, an ARPA should create its own bridge to scaling in the form of programs dedicated to funding projects proven in a test environment to scale their technology for real-world application.

Technology-to-market advisors play a pivotal role.

与上述规模的专用资金类似,技术到市场的顾问负责考虑项目如何进入现实世界。即使在计划开发的早期阶段,他们也应该与PD并驾齐驱,以提供有关项目如何商业化和准备就绪的观点。如果没有这种重点,技术就会冒着死亡的葡萄藤的风险 - 在技术上取得了成功,但在商业上失败了。

ARPA构想的底漆

Tackling grand challenges in transportation infrastructure through ARPA-I requires understanding what is unique about its program design. This process begins with considering the problem worth solving, the opportunity that makes it a ripe problem to solve, a high-level idea of an ARPA program’s fit in solving it, and a visualization of the future once this problem has been solved. This process of early-stage program ideation requires a shift in one’s thinking to find ideas for innovative programs that fit the ARPA model in terms of appropriate ambition level and suitability for ARPA structure and objectives. It is also an inherently iterative process, so while creating a “wireframe” outlining the problem, opportunity, program objectives, and future vision may seem straightforward, it can take months of refining.

共同的挑战

没有明确诊断问题

我们的运输基础设施系统面临的许多挑战并未由一个问题定义。相反,它们是同时需要解决的问题的集合。金博宝正规网址一个有效的程序不仅可以隔离一个问题要解决,而且还可以在可以通过根本原因分析来解决它的水平上接近它。

思考狭窄

On the other hand, problems being considered for ARPA programs can be isolated down to the point that solving them will not drive transformational change. In this situation, narrow problems would not cater to a series of progressive and complementary projects that would fit an ARPA.

Incorrect framing of opportunities:

在进行早期计划设计时,有时将机会框起来是“解决问题的机会”。相反,机会应该反映出已经存在的有前途的方法,技术或方法,但它将通过高级研究机构计划从资金和资源中受益。

仅根据监管或政策角度来解决解决方案

虽然法规和政策变化是应对运输基础设施挑战的必要和重要组成部分,但通过这种镜头来解决问题并不是ARPA的任务。金博宝正规网址ARPA专注于支持开发新方法,技术,能力和方法的突破性创新。此外,解决问题的法规方法通常可能会受到冗长的政策过程。

没有明确的ARPA角色

An ARPA should pursue opportunities to solve problems where, without its intervention, breakthroughs may not happen within a reasonable timeframe. If the public or private sector already has significant interest in solving a problem, and they are well on their way to developing a transformational solution in a few years or less, then ARPA funding and support might provide a higher value-add elsewhere.

Lack of throughline

在选择解决这些问题的整个机会以及计划最终如何结构化的过程中,应以ARPA计划考虑确定的问题作为主题。否则,程序可能缺乏解决特定挑战的有针对性方法。

忘记最终用户

以人为中心的设计应该是ARPA程序范围范围的核心,尤其是在考虑设计人员需要考虑解决问题将如何为日常用户提供转型变化的规模时。

Being solutions-oriented

研究计划不应考虑到预定的解决方案;他们应该围绕特定问题定向,以确保提出的任何解决方案都是有针对性和有效的。

Not being realistic about direct outcomes of the program

Program objectives should not simply restate the opportunity, nor should they jump to where the world will be many years after the program has run its course. They should separate the tactical elements of a program and what impact they will ultimately drive. Designers should consider their program as one key step in a long arc of commercialization and adoption, with a firm sense of who needs to act and what needs to happen to make a program objective a reality.

在整个设计过程中,请记住这些常见的错误,可确保程序适当地局限,适当雄心勃勃,并且符合该机构的目标。考虑到这些指南,想法生成器应以线框的形式开始其程序设计。

线框开发

The first phase in ARPA program development is creating a program wireframe, which is an outline of a potential program that captures key components for consideration to assess the program’s fit and potential impact. The template below shows the components characteristic of a program wireframe.

线框模板

创建一个有血有肉的线框图,程序directors work backward by first envisioning a future state that would be truly transformational for society and across sectors if it were to be realized. Then, they identify a clearly-articulated problem that needs solving and is hindering progress toward this transformational future state. During this process, PDs need to conduct extensive root cause analysis to consider whether the problem they’ve identified is exacerbated by policy, regulatory, or environmental complications—as opposed to those that technology can already solve. This will inform whether a problem is something that ARPA-I has the opportunity to impact fundamentally.

接下来,计划董事确定一个有前途的机会(例如一种方法,方法或技术),如果开发,扩展和实施,将解决他们阐明的问题,并帮助实现他们提出的未来状态。在考虑有前途的机会时,PDS必须评估它是否在三到五年内以及平均计划预算的情况下还需要开发以支持它来支持它以及是否可行。此外,考虑一下考虑计划开发的机会是否是较大的潜在计划的一部分,该计划是否是ARPA-I焦点区域内的较大潜在程序的一部分,这些程序都可以并行运行。

最重要的是,在研究如何解决该问题之前,PD需要阐明阻碍了这一机会已经解决,扩展和实施的原因,以及联邦R&D机构的明确作用或需要什么明确的作用或需要开发技术,方法或方法,以激励私营部门的部署和扩展。例如,如果私营部门已经激励并有能力领导开发特定技术,并且它将在几年内实现市场准备就绪,那么在该特定情况下,ARPA干预的理由较小。另一方面,针对确定问题的规定解决方案可能是如此新生,以至于需要的是更早的基础研发,在这种情况下,ARPA计划并不适合。该领域应保留为更基于科学的联邦研发机构和办公室的领域。

DARPA投资在mRNA中进行了说明。尽管美国国立卫生研究院为初步基础研究做出了重大贡献,但DARPA认识到能够快速扩展和制造治疗疗法的技术差距,促使该机构启动自动诊断以实现预防和治疗方法(Adept),以开发技术以响应技术来响应技术以响应技术来响应技术以做出反应传染病威胁。通过Adept,DARPA在2011年通过$25 million研究和开发其Messenger RNA Therapeutics平台。九年后,Moderna成为继Pfizer-Biontech接收的第二家公司紧急使用授权用于19次疫苗。

另一个例子是Darpa在developing the internet如我们所知,最初不是关于实现普遍存在的全球通信网络的前所未有的概念。最初是研究用于相互链接数据包网络的技术导致了Arpanet的开发,Arpanet是一个开创性的网络,用于在地理分离的计算机中共享信息。DARPA随后签订了BBN技术,以在1969年成为运营之前建造第一条路由器。这项研究为互联网奠定了基础。此后,该商业部门采用了Arpanet的开创性结果,并用它们彻底改变了全球的沟通和信息共享。

线框改进和迭代

为了通过成功的计划开发指导计划董事,乔治·H·海尔迈尔(George H.海尔迈尔教理主义,作为他们为新计划的推销的一部分。这些问题应用于完善线框并设想该程序的外观。特别是,线框改进应在扩展到其余问题之前检查前三个问题。

除了Heilmeier的教理之外,应完成一系列评估和询问线,以进行压力测试,并在草拟机架起草后进行迭代。这种改进过程并不是一定程度的,而是始终基于研究,与专家的讨论以及不断的质疑以确保程序合适。目的是彻底分析我们寻求解决的问题是正确的问题,以及该问题的全部机会是否已经成熟了ARPA干预。

One way to think about determining whether a wireframe could be a program is by asking, “Is this wireframe science or is this science fiction?” In other words, is the proposed technology solution at the right maturity level for an ARPA to make it a reality? There is a relatively broad range in the middle of the technological maturity spectrum that could be an ARPA program fit, but the extreme ends of that spectrum would not be a good fit, and thus those wireframes would need further iteration or rejection. On the far left end of the spectrum would be basic research that only yields published papers or possibly a prototype. On the other extreme would be a technology that is already developed to the point that only full-scale implementation is needed. Everything that falls between could be suitable for an ARPA program topic area.

一旦设计了高影响力程序,下一步就是要严格的压力测试和开发一个程序,直到它类似于可执行的ARPA程序为止。

将ARPA框架应用于运输基础设施挑战

通过使用此框架,可以评估运输基础架构中的任何问题或机会,以作为ARPA级别的想法。专家和利益相关者的想法生成对于创建ARPA-I程序的有效投资组合至关重要,因此Idea Generator必须使用此框架和一组定义的焦点领域来开发有希望的计划线框。ARPA-I的初始焦点领域包括安全性,气候和弹性以及数字化,并具有公平性和可访问性,作为每个焦点区域内的基本考虑。

There are hundreds of potential topic areas that ARPA-I could tackle; the two wireframes below represent examples of early-stage program ideas that would benefit from further pressure testing through the program design iteration cycle.

注意:以下线框是旨在说明ARPA构想和线框架过程的样品,并且不代表美国运输部正在考虑的潜在研究计划或主题。

下一代弹性基础架构管理

物理基础设施及其用途的数字清单

线框开发下一步

After initial wireframe development, further exploration is needed to pressure test an idea and ensure that it can be developed into a viable program to achieve “moonshot” ambitions. Wireframe authors should consider the following factors when iterating:

Wireframes are intended to be a summary communicative of a larger plan to follow. After further iteration and exploration of the factors outlined above, what was first just a raw program wireframe should develop into more detailed documents. These should include an incisive diagnosis of the problem and evidence and citations validating opportunities to solve it. Together, these components should lead to a plausible program objective as an outcome.

结论

新授权和拨款的ARPA-I提供了一个曾经是一代的机会,可以应用一个模型,该模型已被证明成功地开发了其他部门的突破性创新,以应对运输基础设施面临的持续挑战。

将在ARPA-I网络中工作的个人和组织需要清楚地了解该行业的独特情况,挑战和机遇,以及如何运用这种情况以及独特的ARPA计划构想模型来建立高级影响未来的创新计划。这个社区的参与对于ARPA-I的成功至关重要,FAS正在寻找愿意通过发展大胆,创新的思想来应对这一挑战的大思想家。

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