A Decade After Signing, New START Treaty Is Working
By Hans M. Kristensen
On this day, ten years ago, U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri A. Medvedev签署了新的开始条约在布拉格举行的仪式上。该条约限制了两国可能拥有的战略导弹和重型轰炸机的数量，其中不超过700个发射器和1,550枚弹头。该条约于2011年2月生效，并于2018年2月生效。
Twice a year, the two countries have exchanged detailed data on their strategic forces. Of that data, the public gets to see three sets of numbers: the so-called aggregate data of deployed launchers, warheads attributed to those launchers, and total launchers. Nine years of published data looks like this:
最新一组数据是由美国国务院上周发布并显示了截至2020年3月1日的情况。截至该日期，两国总共拥有1,554枚战略导弹和重型轰炸机，其中总共拥有
1,140 launchers were deployed with 2,699 warheads (note: the warhead number is actually about 100 too high because each deployed bomber is counted as one weapon even though bombers don’t carry weapons under normal circumstances).
与2019年9月相比，数据表明，两国合并了3个战略发射器，将部署的战略发射器减少了41，并将部署的战略弹头数量减少了103。其中，其中只有“ 3”是真实的；其他变化反映了自然波动，随着发射器进出维护或正在升级。
Compared with February 2011, the data shows the two countries combined have cut 435 strategic launchers, reduced deployed strategic launchers by 263, and reduced the number of deployed strategic warheads by 638. While important, it’s important to remind that this warhead reduction is but a fraction (less than 8 percent) of the estimated 8,110 warheads that remain in the two countries combined nuclear weapons stockpiles (less than 6 percent if counting their total combined inventories of 12,170 stockpiled and retired (but yet to be dismantled) warheads).
美国
数据显示，美国目前拥有800个战略发射器，其中655个部署了1,373枚弹头。在过去的6个月中，这减少了13个部署的战略发射器和3枚已部署的战略弹头。这些不是实际的减少，而是反映出由发射器进出维护引起的正常波动。自2017年以来，美国一直没有减少其战略发射器的总库存。
与2011年2月相比，美国将其战略发射器的清单减少了324，部署了227，并在427中部署了战略弹头。虽然重要的是，弹头减少仅占一小部分（约11％）剩下的3,800弹头在美国库存（如果计算5,800库存的总库存，则已退休并退休（但尚未被拆除）弹头）。
俄罗斯联邦
The New START data shows Russia with an inventory of 764 strategic launchers, of which 485 are deployed with 1,326 warheads attributed to them. Compared with six months ago, this is a reduction of 28 deployed launchers and 100 deployed strategic warheads and reflects launcher maintenance and upgrade work to new systems.
与2011年2月相比，俄罗斯将其战略发射器的清单减少了111，将发射器部署了36，并将战略弹头部署到211。这种适度的减少量不到估计的5％剩下的4,310枚弹头在俄罗斯的核武器中，库存（如果计算6,370个库存的总库存并退休（但尚未被拆除）的俄罗斯弹头）。
The Russian reductions accomplished under New START are smaller than the U.S. reductions because Russia had fewer strategic forces than the United States when the treaty entered into force in 2011.
积累，什么积聚？
美国官员和核武器经常提倡俄罗斯正在增加其核武库的主张，有趣的是，尽管有一项重要的现代化计划，但新的起点数据表明，这种增长并未发生在俄罗斯战略核力量的规模中。
相反，新的起步数据显示，俄罗斯现在的部署战略发射器比美国的数量少于美国，超过了整个美国空军洲际弹道导弹国际国际空军的大小。自2018年2月125日最低点以来，俄罗斯发射器赤字的增长已增长超过三分之一。
The Russian military is trying to compensate for this launcher disparity by increasing the number of warheads that can be carried on newer missiles replacing older types. Most of these warheads are not deployed on the missiles under normal circumstance but stored and could potentially be uploaded onto launchers in a crisis.美国也具有这样的上传功能因此，它的发射器库存更大，因此并不处于战略劣势。
Two of Russia’s new strategic nuclear weapons (Avangard and Sarmat) are covered by New START. Other types are in relatively small numbers and do not appear capable of upsetting the strategic balance. The treaty includes provisions for including new weapon types.
检查和通知
In addition to the New START data, the U.S. State Department also recently updated its overview of the status of the on-site inspections and notification exchanges that are part of the treaty’s verification regime.
Since February 2011, U.S. and Russian inspectors have carried out 328 on-site inspections of each other’s strategic nuclear forces and exchanged 19,852 notifications of launcher movements and activities. Four inspections happened this year before activities were temporarily halted due to the Coronavirus.
这个政权和记录检查和通知are crucial parts of the treaty and increasingly important for U.S.-Russian strategic relations as other treaties and agreements have been scuttled.
但是，现在的时间也耗尽了新的起点，在条约于2021年2月5日到期之前仅剩下10个月以上。
俄罗斯和美国可以将新的起点条约延长多达5年。双方都必须负责任地采取行动，并保留这一基本协议。
约翰·D（John D.）和凯瑟琳·T·麦克阿瑟（Catherine T.新土地基金会，植物基金会和前景山基金会。所做的陈述和表达的观点仅仅是作者的责任。